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Jim who has graced our television screens for many years is
currently Managing Director and Senior Forecaster at
WeatherQuest, based at the University of East Anglia in
Norwich. Jim and his colleagues provide weather forecast services
for the BBC, as well as for farmers, the insurance industry and
the general public.
So was last month average for the time of year? Jim says:
"September was an OK month really, with reasonable weather after a
wet August." In fact September was quite dry as Jim explains:
"Taking England & Wales as a whole rainfall was 64 % of
average. Locally, Wittering in Cambridgeshire had a relatively
miserly 28 mm (55 to 60 % of average)."
There was something of a north south divide in terms of rainfall.
Jim says: "Further South rainfall was less - Bedford had 20 mm
and Wattisham in Norfolk only 17mm (31%)."
September was also a warm month. The daily mean max temperature at
Wittering is 19 °C while average night-time temperatures are 10
°C. Jim remarks that: "Daytime temperatures were 1 to 1.5 °C
above average and at night-time they were around average."
Associated with September being relatively warm, it was also quite
sunny. Jim says: "In terms of sunshine, it wasn't too bad a
month. In fact Wittering clocked up over 160 hours and in some of
the sunnier parts of Eastern England around 170 hours."
In summary September was warm, fairly sunny and dry. As for wind,
Jim says: "There were no real stormy events, although the
middle part of the month was certainly more unsettled."
Jim provides some interesting information on sea temperatures and
how they affect the weather. He says: "The warmth of the North
Sea gives you slightly better nights near the beach, although this
doesn't happen during the day. The North Sea cools rather slowly
during this time of year, which can be beneficial. Conversely,
around Whitsun the sea takes a long time to warm up as we start to
get into the summer."
Jim also explains how the hurricanes over the Caribbean and
Florida can actually reach England and influence our autumn
weather. He says: "The rain we had over last weekend was
tropical air, which was part and parcel of Hurricane Jeanne. 60 to
70 mm fell over the West of the country. Most autumns we get
hurricane air as low pressure, which leads to lots of wet weather.
The tropical air is warmer and can carry more rain. The moist air
goes into the higher altitudes and moves into the Troposphere
across the Atlantic until it reaches England."
So what can we expect from the weather in the next week or two?
Jim says: "We normally experience fogs and frosts at this time of
year, with clear skies and colder longer nights. However, saying
that we have nothing to suggest that we will have this type of
weather until well into next week.
"We are expecting things to turn gradually colder as we go into
next week, with high pressure currently over the north of the
country and low pressure over the south. By the end of next week,
the situation will be reversed with more typical foggy and frosty
weather."
Weather forecasting is not without its difficulties and Jim does
strike a slight note of caution as you might expect: "From the
latest measurements we take, looking into the future, the further
we forecast ahead, the more errors gradually multiply."
WeatherQuest provide a forecast hotline for the general
public, who have specific weather questions not answered by the
usual forecasts. The number is 09065 77 76 75. Calls cost £1.50
per minute and are available 7 days a week from 8am to 6pm.
October 2004 |
